Ukraine War

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine beginning February 2022. Involves questions of NATO expansion, nuclear deterrence, European security architecture, and the future of the rules-based international order.

Actors

People's Republic of China

state

  • Secure Iranian oil imports - Iran is a key energy supplier outside US-aligned supply chains
  • Expand Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure and economic influence in Iran and the broader Middle East
  • ~ Undermine US-led unilateral sanctions regime and the dollar-based financial order
  • ~ Keep US strategic attention and military resources tied to the Middle East rather than the Indo-Pacific
  • ~ Position itself as neutral diplomatic broker to gain geopolitical prestige (2023 Saudi-Iran deal precedent)

European E3 (UK, France, Germany)

state

  • Prevent Iranian nuclear proliferation through diplomacy (JCPOA framework)
  • Avoid military escalation that would produce refugee flows, energy price shocks, and regional instability
  • ~ Maintain strategic autonomy from US foreign policy while preserving the transatlantic alliance
  • ~ Protect European economic ties with Iran (trade, energy) against US secondary sanctions

NATO

organization

  • Prevent Russian territorial expansion beyond Ukraine
  • Demonstrate alliance credibility and deterrence capacity
  • Avoid direct military confrontation with Russia that could trigger Article 5 or nuclear escalation
  • ~ Expand membership and reinforce the alliance's relevance (Finland, Sweden accession as validation)

Russian Federation

state

  • Maintain strategic partnership with Iran as counterweight to US influence in the Middle East
  • ~ Keep the US militarily occupied in the Middle East to reduce pressure on Russia elsewhere (Ukraine, Eastern Europe)
  • Preserve arms export market and military cooperation with Iran (S-400, Su-35 sales, intelligence sharing)
  • ~ Benefit from elevated energy prices caused by Middle Eastern instability
  • ~ Prevent precedent of Western-led regime change that could be applied to Russia itself

Ukrainian Government

state

  • Restore full territorial sovereignty including Crimea and Donbas
  • Secure NATO membership or equivalent security guarantees
  • Maintain Western military and financial support for the duration of the conflict
  • EU membership and integration into Western economic structures

US Defense Industry

lobby

  • Maintain and expand US military aid to Israel ($3.8B/year baseline, plus supplemental wartime packages)
  • ~ Secure contracts from military escalation: missile defense systems, precision munitions, aircraft, naval deployments
  • ~ Sustain threat perception that justifies high US defense budgets
  • ~ Expand arms sales to Gulf states triggered by Iranian threat escalation (Saudi, UAE, Qatar)

US Government

state

  • Prevent nuclear proliferation in the Middle East
  • Maintain strategic alliance with Israel
  • ~ Avoid direct military entanglement in another Middle Eastern war
  • ~ Secure energy supply stability and Gulf state relationships

Positions

Tucker Carlson · 2022-12-15

Why should Americans care about the borders of Ukraine when we can't even secure our own border? This is not our war. Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries on the planet, and our leaders want to send your tax dollars there instead of fixing our own country.

Noam Chomsky · 2022-04-15

The Russian invasion is a criminal act of aggression. But it was provoked by decades of NATO expansion that any Russian government would have responded to. The rational policy is negotiation, not escalation to the brink of nuclear war.

Destiny (Steven Bonnell) · 2023-09-20

If we let Putin take Ukraine, every dictator on the planet gets the message that conquest works. This isn't just about Ukraine - it's about whether the rules-based international order means anything. You either defend sovereignty or you don't.

Nick Fuentes · 2023-06-10

Not our problem. Not our war. Not one more dollar for Zelensky's corrupt regime. America First means we take care of Americans, not launder money through the most corrupt country in Europe.

Lindsey Graham · 2023-11-20

The Russians are dying. It's the best money we've ever spent. We should give Ukraine everything it needs to win. This is about defending the rules-based international order and showing the world that aggression doesn't pay.

Glenn Greenwald · 2023-03-15

The media coverage of Ukraine is a masterclass in propaganda. Dissenting voices are censored, labeled Russian agents, and deplatformed. The same institutional machinery that manufactured consent for Iraq is manufacturing consent for a proxy war with a nuclear power.

Nikki Haley · 2023-06-10

If we let Putin take Ukraine, China takes Taiwan the next day. This is about American credibility. When America is strong, the world is safer.

Jackson Hinkle · 2025-01-20

Russia is denazifying Ukraine. NATO is the aggressor. This is the beginning of the end of American empire. The multipolar world is being born in Ukraine, and BRICS will replace the dollar as the global reserve currency. Russia is on the right side of history.

Douglas Macgregor · 2024-03-15

Ukraine has already lost. The war is over. We're pouring money into a lost cause and risking nuclear war with Russia for nothing. Any military professional can see that Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition against Russia. We need to negotiate now before this becomes a nuclear catastrophe.

John Mearsheimer · 2022-06-10

The West is principally responsible for the Ukraine crisis. The taproot of the trouble is NATO expansion. The Russians made it clear at every turn that they viewed NATO expansion into Ukraine as an existential threat, and we ignored them. This is Geopolitics 101.

Trita Parsi · 2023-04-15

The priority must be ending the killing, not winning the war. A negotiated settlement is the only way to stop the bloodshed and prevent nuclear escalation. Continuing to arm Ukraine without a diplomatic track risks catastrophic escalation for a war that will ultimately end at the negotiating table anyway.

Hasan Piker · 2023-02-24

This is a US proxy war. We're sending Ukrainians to die to bleed Russia. The US doesn't care about Ukrainian sovereignty - it cares about weakening a rival. If we cared about sovereignty we wouldn't have invaded Iraq. This is about maintaining American hegemony, and Ukrainians are paying the price with their lives.

Scott Ritter · 2024-08-10

Russia's military operation is going according to plan. The Western media is lying about Ukrainian victories. Russia will prevail because it has escalation dominance and the industrial capacity to sustain a long war. NATO provoked this conflict and Russia is responding rationally to an existential threat on its border.

Bernie Sanders · 2023-02-10

I voted for Ukraine aid because Putin's invasion is a clear violation of international law. But I am deeply concerned about the lack of oversight, the blank check approach, and the absence of any diplomatic strategy. We need an endgame.

JD Vance · 2023-07-20

I don't think it's in America's interest to continue to fund a war that I don't think can be won. Ukraine is not a vital US interest. Europe should be defending Europe.

Matt Walsh · 2023-05-05

I support Ukraine's sovereignty in principle, but I'm tired of being told I have to care more about Ukraine's border than our own. Why are we spending billions on Zelensky when American cities are falling apart?