John Mearsheimer / Greenland Crisis / 2025-01-16

Position

Trump could take Greenland because he is willing to use force on the cheap. This would be a deadly one-two combination with the Ukraine situation that would basically ruin NATO. The Europeans would never forgive the Americans for taking Greenland from Denmark, and combined with forcing Ukraine to settle on Russian terms, it would be the end of the transatlantic alliance.

Position from 2025-01-16

International relations are governed by power dynamics between great powers, not by international law or institutional frameworks

Their wording: “Trump can take Greenland because in an anarchic system, a great power willing to use coercion against a small state will succeed - Denmark has no means to resist

Mearsheimer holds this from offensive realist theory: the international system does not prevent great powers from acting on their interests, and a power disparity this extreme makes the outcome structurally determined. Cross-conflict consistency: the same framework that explains Russia's behavior in Ukraine explains US behavior toward Greenland

Also held by (4)
Incompatible with (2)

NATO is an obsolete Cold War alliance that no longer serves American interests

Their wording: “Greenland combined with Ukraine would basically ruin NATO - the alliance cannot survive the US simultaneously coercing an ally and abandoning another

Mearsheimer holds this as a structural prediction rather than an advocacy position: NATO depends on US credibility, and two simultaneous credibility-destroying actions would exceed the alliance's capacity to absorb

Also held by (2)
Incompatible with (4)

Great powers have the right to expand territory when strategic interests demand it

Their wording: “Great powers expand when the cost is low enough - Trump sees Greenland as achievable 'on the cheap' because Denmark cannot resist

Mearsheimer does not endorse this normatively but describes it as how great powers behave: the structural opportunity (massive power asymmetry, minimal resistance cost) predicts the action regardless of international law

Also held by (3)
Incompatible with (3)